Georgia: Why Europe Must Act Now

Translated from the German by Hillary Crowe.

It’s roughly a year since Georgia’s controversial premier Irakli Kobakhidze announced the unilateral suspension of talks on EU accession. Since then, large numbers of Georgians who see the country’s future firmly embedded in the EU and not as a vassal of a neo-imperialistic Russia have been protesting this decision every day.

The situation unfolding in Georgia is therefore much more than a domestic political dispute in an EU accession candidate. On the contrary, a strategically orchestrated experiment is under way – one whose political logic is quietly encouraged by the Kremlin and which is now clearly reflected in the rhetoric of the ruling party Georgian Dream. Granted, at civil society level, a resilient, clearly Western-oriented democratic stance still exists, but without substantial support from the European partners, it risks being stifled by an increasingly entrenched autocracy. Europe should therefore view Georgia as a prototype – an experiment in which Moscow is testing to what extent authoritarian practices and anti-Western narratives can be embedded in an EU accession candidate without serious countermeasures being taken by Europe.

Party bans and repression

Georgian Dream’s announcement on 4 November that it planned to ban the most significant pro-Western opposition parties – including Ahali, Lelo and the United National Movement – should be viewed against this background. In parallel, the security service and public prosecutor’s office have initiated fresh criminal prosecutions against opposition leaders who are already in detention. The official narrative refers to sabotage, support from hostile states and the undermining of national security. In reality, however, this is about the systematic criminalisation of forces that have urged international partners to defend democratic institutions and impose sanctions on a political elite that is intermeshed with Russia. With the ongoing disempowerment of independent institutions and the deliberate sidelining of political rivals, the country is aligning itself with its northern neighbour’s authoritarian model at an alarming rate.

Resistance under pressure – but still united

At the same time, it is clear that democratic resistance – despite massive repression – is still remarkably steadfast. Civil society – under considerable pressure since June 2023 due to the Law on Foreign Agents, which is modelled on Russian legislation – is subjected to interrogations, freezing of accounts, administrative chicanery and routine intimidation. Media figures face detention, financial penalties and impediments to their work. NGOs that provide legal support or document human rights violations are increasingly stigmatised as ‘enemies of the state’. Even so, they continue to function – one of the last remaining democratic pillars in a country on the brink of authoritarianism.

Recently, Georgian Dream also announced a legal amendment which would require Georgian citizens living abroad to travel to Georgia in order to vote, instead of being permitted to vote elsewhere. Shalva Papuashvili, the Speaker of Parliament, justified this with the claim that Georgians living abroad are ‘exposed to the influence of German politicians’ and therefore likely to vote against the ruling party. This move is a serious infringement of Georgian citizens’ basic political rights and deliberately weakens their democratic participation.

Attack on Europe: Disinformation as a government strategy

While resistance is consolidating, Georgian Dream is bent on intensifying its comprehensive anti-Western campaign. On government-adjacent TV channels, the EU is increasingly discredited with Soviet-style rhetoric. Germany, in particular, is coming under the spotlight: due to its clear stance on sanctions and human rights, the Federal Republic is regularly described as an ‘interfering force’.

The German ambassador to Georgia, Peter Fischer, has become a target for systematic and personal attacks. Media close to the government accuse him of supporting the ‘criminal opposition’ – a narrative that clearly reproduces the Kremlin’s political practices. Moscow has been attempting for years to portray European democracies as manipulators, claiming that any form of pro-Western opposition is steered from outside.

What Europe must do now

Georgia is facing its most dangerous political turning point since independence. Party bans, mass prosecutions, a drastically shrinking civil society space and openly anti-European messaging conceal the real danger, namely that the country will finally break with democratic standards and enter the Kremlin’s sphere of influence. The window of opportunity for political countermeasures is still open – but is closing rapidly.

Europe has several options for responding to the current developments. They include:

• Targeted sanctions against the oligarchic elite, particularly against those who are actively engaged in eroding democratic structures.
• Massive and visible support for NGOs and independent media, including emergency financial aid and safeguard mechanisms.
• Clear political communication that states conditions and consequences if democratic institutions are further undermined. Through the Weimar+ formats, Germany can play a key role in mobilising international attention and ensuring that Georgia is prioritised in EU foreign policy.
• An active presence in Tbilisi, e.g. through enhanced EU observer missions and high-level diplomatic visits, as a visible signal of Europe’s support to the Georgian population.

Georgia’s future – and, with it, part of the European security architecture – hangs in the balance. Unless Europe takes resolute action, it risks losing a country whose society – despite facing a high level of repression – is clearly investing its hopes in a European path. Right now, Georgia is not only a field of conflict between democracy and authoritarianism, but also a test case for how Europe reacts to hybrid and politically orchestrated influence on the part of Russia. Looking away would be a sign of weakness whose impacts would be felt far beyond the Caucasus.

Dr Khatia Kikalishvili is Programme Director for Eastern Partnership at the Centre for Liberal Modernity (Libmod).