Can Péter Magyar Become an Anti-populist Hero?

Viktor Orbán was the poster boy for illiberal populists around the world. Before his defeat in April, he won four elections in a row and quickly became an icon for right-wing illiberal autocrats. He was called the ‘Trump before Trump’, and the term ‘Orbánisation’ suggested that Orbán’s success in Hungary could offer a blueprint for like-minded leaders keen to install populist regimes in their own countries. With his defeat, right-wing populists lost their symbol and their opponents found inspiration. Students in Serbia have claimed that Hungary’s example inspired their fight and ultimate triumph over former president Aleksandar Vučić.

Being in power for 16 years with a two-thirds majority meant that Orbán had the time, the means and the resources to occupy institutions, to take control of the media and to tamper with electoral rules in order to create a system designed to keep him in power. We now know that that system was not fail-proof. In the 2026 elections, Péter Magyar’s Tisza party achieved a crushing victory over Orbán’s Fidesz.

The election defeat should not have come as a complete surprise to Orbán. After all, this was what many polls were predicting. Maybe Orbán even had a plan B in the event of Fidesz’s defeat. By 2026, all of the country’s institutions were occupied by his cronies. And with the economy in ruins, he may have expected the new government to fail, thus creating an opening for him to return as the saviour. But he miscalculated the scale of the defeat.

Following his victory, Péter Magyar was hailed as the harbinger of a receding populist tide. For Francis Fukuyama and Timothy Garton Ash, Hungary had set a positive precedent for other countries governed by populist regimes. And Kim Schepelle suggested that Magyar’s success might spark a ‘democratic cascade’. The question now is whether Magyar will live up to these expectations.

Dismantling Orbán’s legacy

The new government inherited a country with institutions packed with Orbán’s allies – from the president of the republic to the judges at the Constitutional Court. They could have undermined its capacity to rule. But the landslide victory gave Magyar the parliamentary supermajority required to get rid of Orbán’s people. Thus a constitutional amendment passed by parliament on 13 July led to the removal of President Tamás Sulyok and introduced a compulsory retirement age of 70 for constitutional judges.

Yet the challenges for the new government are still enormous. It seems that no corner of the state is without its skeletons. The legacies of the Orbán regime run deep, and in the process of building new institutions a lot of dead wood will have to be removed. The success of Hungary’s democracy will depend, moreover, not only on the choice of ministers, but also on whether the deep-rooted tribalism and nepotism in Hungarian politics can be overcome. At the same time, it is unclear where exactly the new government stands on different issues. In some cases, it represents a radical shift. But in others – like immigration policies – the direction the prime minister plans to take is still unclear.

Magyar – an anti-illiberal hero?

The view of many in Europe that Orbán’s defeat was a moral victory means that Péter Magyar could become the hero of anti-populist forces. This makes his win highly significant beyond the borders of Hungary. His success as prime minister would prove that an entrenched illiberal leader can be defeated at the ballot box and democracy can be rebuilt. Hence, in symbolic terms, the stakes are extremely high for the opponents of illiberal populism – Péter Magyar and Hungary cannot be allowed to fail. But it is not yet clear whether the high hopes placed in Magyar and his Tisza party are justified. After all, Magyar cut his political teeth in Fidesz and he identifies as a centre-right conservative. Two scenarios are possible: He could turn Tisza into a less corrupt version of Fidesz; or he could become a truly progressive leader.

In Europe’s current political landscape there is no autocratic populist with the potential to replace Orbán as an illiberal icon. Orbán had a missionary zeal and was always trying to punch above his weight. He willingly took a confrontational stance on the international stage and defied EU rules, even if it cost Hungary millions. Slovakia’s prime minister Robert Fico is more pragmatic and would avoid being fined by the EU at all costs.

Recent reports suggest that Trump might nominate Orbán for the post of UN Secretary General. That move could return the former prime minister to the global stage and offer him immunity from possible prosecutions at home. (Legal proceedings have already been taken against many of his associates.) Yet even such a prominent post would not make Orbán the illiberal hero he once was. Magyar now has the chance to become a hero for the opposing side.

Ákos Kopper is associate professor at Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE) in Budapest. Between 2022 and 2024, he was a Humboldt research fellow and researcher at ZOiS.