Estonia’s Fractured Social Landscape: Views on Security, Politics and History
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Summary
In a tangible legacy of the Soviet era, more than one-quarter of Estonia’s population is Russian-speaking. This social make-up makes political debates on questions of security and societal resilience particularly contentious in Estonia. The situation has not been helped by Russia’s persistent interference in the country’s domestic affairs.
Financed by the European Research Council, the ZOiS research project Move- MeRU has collected new quantitative and qualitative data on critical aspects of Estonian society. In this report, we compare attitudes on national security, the war in Ukraine, and Estonian politics and history among individuals with and without a Russian background. In so doing, we pay particular attention to the dynamics between the younger (18 – 34) and older (35 – 65) generations. Rather than self-reported ethnicity or native language, our analysis centres on family background, i. e. the country in which a person’s family was raised. This choice is deliberate since in the current climate self-reported ethnicity and native language are often bound up with a person’s political identity and therefore potentially biased. Family background does justice to the fact that Estonians who speak Russian as their first language or view themselves as ethnically Russian are a diverse group with family roots in Russia but also elsewhere.
The key findings are:
- Across Estonian society, Russia is seen as the greatest threat to national security. Yet people with a Russian background are far less definite in that regard. They also differ markedly from Estonians without a Russian background in their attitudes to Russia’s war against Ukraine. More than 50 per cent of those without Russian background strongly agree that Russia is solely to blame for the war. In contrast, among those with a Russian background, only one-quarter of younger respondents and less than one-fifth of respondents aged 35 to 65 share this view.
- Our data reveal further significant differences in attitudes between Estonians with and without a Russian background, particularly in relation to security and history. While family background matters here, the degree of identification with other people living in Estonia is also important. In general, individuals who identify strongly with Russian speakers in Estonia diverge more sharply in their views on security and history from other Estonians.
- Democracy has come under pressure across the globe, and Estonia is no exception. Regardless of their family background, the younger generation tends to be more committed to the principle of democracy. When asked about their views on the idea of democracy, roughly one-third of Estonians without a Russian background believe it is a very good form of government, with approval rates even higher among younger people. Significantly fewer individuals with a Russian background share this very positive assessment.
- Strong divisions emerge on the presence of Ukrainian refugees in Estonia, their long-term prospects, and the question of whether Estonia should welcome Russians fleeing their country. Younger respondents are generally more supportive of welcoming both Russian and Ukrainian refugees. Overall, respondents with a Russian background tend to support the idea of welcoming Russians fleeing their country, while those without a Russian background reject this proposal but remain more in favour of welcoming Ukrainians.
- Interpretations of historical events are often divisive and align with present day security perceptions. We find that most younger respondents with a Russian background express prevailing Estonian interpretations of twentieth century history. While older respondents with a Russian background still tend to view 9 May through the lens of the Soviet-era Victory Day, the younger generation’s interpretation of this commemorative day is more victim centred.
- Compared to other Estonians, respondents with a Russian background rarely engage in political discussions with their family members. There is also greater political polarisation between the generations in these families. In their work environment, respondents with a Russian background, in particular the younger generation, report that they frequently disagree on politics with their colleagues or avoid the subject altogether.
