Moldova: Businesses on the Right and Left Banks of the Nistru are Pragmatic When it Comes to the EU
A social scientific survey of businesses on both sides of the de facto border between Moldova and the de facto state of Transnistria finds that while EU integration is well under way, a pragmatic approach to geopolitical questions prevails, especially in Transnistria.
The EU accession candidate Moldova has for some time been pursuing closer economic integration with the EU. Yet for the breakaway region of Transnistria, a de facto state backed by Russia, Russia is still an important trading partner.
Against this background, social scientists examined the possible links between political views and the market orientation of businesses in Moldova and asked whether trade between the regions might contribute to conflict resolution. To that end, a research team conducted a survey among 1,161 Moldovan businesses, including those on the right bank of the Nistru – the de facto border river – but also on the left bank, in the breakaway region of Transnistria.
The growing role of the EU
On both banks of the Nistru, economic trade is very much focussed on domestic markets. Trade across the river plays a subordinate role and is more important for businesses in Transnistria.
The free-trade area with the EU has led Moldovan businesses to focus more on exports to the EU. A gradual diversification of trade relations can also be observed in the case of Transnistrian businesses. While Russia remains an important partner, European markets are playing a growing role.
Pragmatic market orientation
Transnistrian businesses that trade with Moldovan businesses on the right bank of the Nistru tend to favour greater integration with the EU. Yet Moldovan businesses on the right bank engaged in cross-Nistru trade are more likely to support economic engagement with both the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). ‘This pattern suggests that the geopolitical preferences of trading firms are shaped by commercial pragmatism,’ observes Dr Sabine von Löwis.
Views on Transnistria: trade has no systematic influence
In conflict resolution, trade links are often used as one of many so-called confidence-building measures. The aim is to enable contact and keep channels of communication open, without this implying recognition of the de facto state. The same applies in the long-running conflict between the Republic of Moldova and the de facto state of Transnistria.
However, cross-Nistru trade does not seem to have a significant influence on how the businesses view the status of Transnistria. As Dr Julia Langbein notes, ‘For Transnistrian businesses, trade relations with Moldova do not automatically go hand in hand with greater support for political integration – not even if Transnistria were to have the status of an autonomous region.’
The authors emphasise that although trade relations do not automatically lead to a convergence of political positions, they could strengthen trust between the trading partners. To unlock this potential as a confidence-building measure in the conflict between the Republic of Moldova and the de facto state of Transnistria, the obstacles to cross-river trade would need to be reduced.
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